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(Any views expressed in the below are the personal views of the author and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions.)
Since I began investing in Bitcoin 6 years ago as a younger lad, I’ve seen more crypto crashes than any healthy individual should. I had expected Bitcoin to hold the $30k level during the summer months, before capitulating down to the $20k range around September, similar to the $6k level during 2018. However, the market left my thesis in the dust.
The latest dump to $17k was perhaps the worst capitulation Bitcoin has seen, and now that the price has started to recover alongside the NASDAQ, people are asking,
“Is this market pump a dead-cat bounce, or is the bottom in?”
Economist Lyn Alden says, “The best time to buy is during periods of forced selling from institutions”. Following the Terra Luna, 3AC & Celsius collapses, the market couldn’t get much more bearish in June. It was a great time to buy, right?
In hindsight 1 month later, YES! However historically, Bitcoin tends to bounce from a low, and come back down to retest the bottom one more time, before moving higher for good. The 2020 covid capitulation is a perfect example of retesting the previous cycle’s bottom. Bitcoin hasn’t lived through a global recession before, and due to the global economic environment & political tensions, I think it pays to be patient.
Given the recent comments of the Fed & price action, I’m of the humble opinion that Bitcoin & ETH have most likely bottomed, but that prices will stay down at these levels for a few more months at least.
Should the market come back down to touch the $19k level again, I’ll be ready to buy heavier. In the meantime, I’ll be here continuing to DCA (dollar-cost average) into blue-chips weekly, and building DeFi & NFTs for the next bull run.
Some say history repeats itself... I’m in the camp that it rhymes.
Product Manager at Ember Fund
Investing in BTC since 2016
May 23, 2023
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